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APRIL 25,  2011

GAS PRICES HEAD ONLY ONE WAY – AT 10:44 P.M. ET:  Gasoline prices continue their upward climb.  The Business and Media Institute has, in our view, an accurate assessment of what is happening, and the Obama effect on it: 

The average price for a gallon of unleaded gasoline hit $3.86 on April 25, more than $1-a-gallon higher than a year earlier and less than 25 cents away from the record high price of gasoline set in July 2008.

In fact, per gallon prices are more than $2 higher than when Obama took office Jan. 20, 2009. Yet the president has been nearly exempt from criticism on the issue of rising prices, despite a six-month drilling moratorium and more regulatory hurdles for industry.

The Business & Media Institute found that out of the 280 oil price stories the network evening shows have aired since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, only 1 percent (3 stories) mentioned Obama's drilling ban or other anti-oil actions in connection with gasoline prices.

Instead of asking whether Obama's anti-oil policies could be increasing the cost of gas, the networks blamed other factors such as Mideast turmoil or the "money game" played by speculators. Certainly, the turmoil in Libya, Egypt and surrounding nations has increased worries about oil production and can influence the price. But the networks also should have looked for explanations much closer to home, like Obama's many regulatory actions taken against the oil industry.

COMMENT:  It is true that a lifting of some of the regulations is unlikely to have an immediate effect on oil prices.  But a change in this administration's energy policy would provide hope and incentive.  Sadly, the Obamans are under the Svangali-like influence of extreme environmentalists and Al Gorist promoters of "alternative" energy sources that do not exist, and are unlikely to exist on a practical level for years and years. 

Gasoline prices in some parts of the country have hit five dollars.  With the coming of cold weather again, home heating oil prices will stun Americans. 

No one is in love with oil companies.  They aren't very lovable.  But for a century or more they've provided this country with relatively cheap, reliable sources of energy.  Obama will blame the oil companies for the current crisis, the the mainstream media won't challenge him to any great degree.  But I suspect the public is on to this ploy.  The oil-price crisis has got to impact Obama, just as it impacted Carter in the late 70s.  In the meantime, we feel the pain, and no one feels it for us.

April 25, 2011       Permalink

BARBOUR IS OUT – AT 5:43 P.M. ET:  Mississippi Republican Governor Haley Barbour announced today that he will not be a candidate for president in 2012.  From The Politico:

Haley Barbour said Monday that he won't run for president in 2012, removing a fundraising powerhouse with establishment clout from the Republican primary field.

"This has been a difficult, personal decision, and I am very grateful to my family for their total support of my going forward, had that been what I decided," the Mississippi governor said in a statement.

"A candidate for president today is embracing a 10-year commitment to an all-consuming effort, to the virtual exclusion of all else," Barbour added. "His (or her) supporters expect and deserve no less than absolute fire in the belly from their candidate. I cannot offer that with certainty, and total certainty is required."

That's pro forma.  This is speculation, but I sense that Barbour didn't see a practical route to victory.

Barbour's announcement stunned political insiders — just hours earlier, many were expecting him to meet his self-imposed deadline and enter the race by the end of April.

COMMENT:  I wasn't all that stunned.  Barbour has been a fine governor and is a superb political operative.  But he is little known by the general electorate outside his state. 

I've written here before that Barbour faced one huge obstacle, and it's spelled M-i-s-s-i-s-s-i-p-p-i.  Even if he got the nomination, he'd be running against the nation's first black president, and he's governor of a state that, unfairly or not, is still associated in the minds of many with the greatest resistance to civil rights.  You can just feel the uneasiness, and you can certainly predict the broad hints about what a Barbour victory in November would "say about us."  The race card will be played no matter who the GOP candidate is.  If it were Barbour, the whole deck would be played.

I think it's a wise decision.  Secretary of Commerce looks fine.

April 25, 2011       Permalink

IS AMERICAN DOMINANCE NEARING AN END? – AT 8:17 A.M. ET:   The International Monetary Fund is predicting that China will overtake us, and soon.  From MarketWatch:

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.

For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.

And it’s a lot closer than you may think.

According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

Put that in your calendar.

It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington, D.C., right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.

According to the IMF forecast, whoever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.

Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. Listen to experts of various stripes and they will tell you this moment is decades away. The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s.

COMMENT:  Not happy reading.  But let me point out that it wasn't long ago that Japan was predicted to be the world's new superpower.  It never happened.  I think China will give us a run for the money, but my friend Gordon Chang, a real China expert, points out that China has serious problems, including an inability to control its population, especially in the distant provinces. 

China is taking enormous economic strides, in large measure because it makes things.  Physical products actually come from China, the way they used to come from the United States. 

I wouldn't count America out, but China's sheer population – more than a billion – favors it for the future, if it can keep control of its population.  America, though, is favored by its innovative spirit and sense of entrepreneurship, if those bedrocks can be nurtured.

We thought we were done in 1942, after Pearl Harbor and the Japanese sweep through the Pacific.  And then again in 1957, when Sputnik went up.  And then again in 1975, when we gave up in Vietnam.  We came back stronger each time, and we were lucky enough to have a Reagan in the 1980s who boosted America's morale and restored our confidence. 

Well, today we have Obama, a man who doesn't  really believe in his own country.  We need change we can believe in.

April 25, 2011       Permalink

CALIFORNIA, WE AIN'T COMIN' – AT 7:47 A.M. ET:  California is in desperate trouble.  A new poll says that Californians actually support raising taxes, although I suspect many who voted "yes" think someone else's taxes will be raised.  From Andrew Malcolm at the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog:

If the conventional mantra about California being on the forefront of the nation's political trends holds true, it's really bad news for America's taxpayers.

According to a new L.A. Times / USC Dornsife poll, a majority of Californians -- 52% to 38% -- are just fine with Democrat Jerry Brown's plan to fill the state's chronic budget deficit with $14 billion in new or renewed taxes along with cuts, as long as they get to vote on it.

At least the voters are demanding that they be included in the decision. 

This despite the recent history of waste, corruption and spending abuses in the most populous state's vast government.

This despite the state's continuing 12% unemployment rate, second-highest in the country.

This despite the weak 44% job approval rating for Gov. Brown.

This despite 41% of Californians believing that wasteful, unwise spending by ....

... state officials is responsible for the deficit.

This despite 67% of Californians believing the state's coughing economy is not yet improving and possibly worsening.

This despite 66% of Californians believing the country is on the wrong track under the Obama administration...

COMMENT:  As I wrote here last week, I'm afraid higher taxes are coming because the Dems will scare voters by saying there'll be no more medical care or Social Security without them.  Maybe even the schools and college football will go.  Today soccer, tomorrow the Rose parade. 

Both parties know how to demagogue tax issues.  I think only a change in presidents will result in any kind of rational, thoughtful national conversation.

April 25, 2011        Permalink

THE BUNKER IS HIT – AT 7:39 A.M. ET:  NATO is targeting Qaddafi's headquarters.  From Fox:

TRIPOLI – NATO airstrikes targeted the center of Muammar Qaddafi's seat of power early Monday, destroying a multi-story library and office and badly damaging a reception hall for visiting dignitaries.

Qaddafi's whereabouts at the time of the attack on his sprawling Bab al-Azizya compound were unclear. A security official at the scene said four people were lightly hurt.

Monday's strike came after Qaddafi's forces unleashed a barrage of shells and rockets at the besieged rebel city of Misrata, in an especially bloody weekend that left at least 32 dead and dozens wounded.

The battle for Misrata, which has claimed hundreds of lives in the past two months, has become the focal point of Libya's armed rebellion against Qaddafi since fighting elsewhere is deadlocked.

Video of Misrata civilians being killed and wounded by Qaddafi's heavy weapons, including Grad rockets and tank shells, have spurred calls for more forceful international intervention to stop the bloodshed in the rebel-held city.

COMMENT:  This is speculation, but I'm assuming that the attack on Qaddafi's compound was designed to scare him into leaving.  Increasingly, analysts see Qaddafi's departure as absolutely mandatory for NATO to proclaim any kind of victory.  If Muammar stays, we lose.

At the same time, more hawkish members of the Senate – McCain, Graham, Lieberman – are calling for increasing American support for the rebels.  The fear is that a stalemate is developing.  NATO, in such a circumstance, would probably lose interest, and we would look ridiculous, and weak.  Same thing.

April 25, 2011       Permalink

AUTOMOTIVE NEWS – AT 7:30 A.M. ET:  Forbes is out with its list of the worst cars.  We report with understandable emotion that the two auto companies that got the federal bailouts, GM and Chrysler, proudly dominate the list.  From the Washington Examiner:

Thank goodness we put up $80 billion to bail out GM and Chrysler. They are now building such wonderful cars that they have achieved total dominance of the Forbes "Worst Cars on the Road" list, which we could also call the "Bottom Eleven."

GM and Chrysler account for nine of the cars among the bottom eleven. IN other news, the UAW is grateful for your generosity in keeping their union from disappearing. It appears you've achieved little else with your donation.

It is worth noting that all cars on this list except the Mercedes Benz S550 failed safety and/or reliability tests, in addition to being failures in such areas as value and gas mileage.

Cadillac Escalade
Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid
Dodge Nitro
Jeep Wrangler
Dodge Dakota
Mercedes Benz S550
Chrysler Town and Country
Chevrolet Colorado
Chevrolet Aveo
Jeep Liberty
Nissan Titan

COMMENT:  It's just so moving to see what our tax dollars have brought.  Yes, it's heartening to see a Mercedes and a Nissan on the list, proving there are other car companies doing bad things.  But the sheer dominance by GM and Chrysler might suggest that our tax dollars were not well spent. 

My Honda was made in Ohio.  Built by American hands, and with zero defects on delivery.  I wonder why.

April 25,  2011     Permalink

APRIL 24,  2011

AGAIN, THE NEW YORK TIMES – AT 10:16 P.M. ET:  The New York Times is now running a major story, based on what it admits are classified documents it has obtained, about the Guantanamo prison:

WASHINGTON — A trove of more than 700 classified military documents provides new and detailed accounts of the men who have done time at the Guantánamo Bay prison in Cuba, and offers new insight into the evidence against the 172 men still locked up there.

Military intelligence officials, in assessments of detainees written between February 2002 and January 2009, evaluated their histories and provided glimpses of the tensions between captors and captives. What began as a jury-rigged experiment after the 2001 terrorist attacks now seems like an enduring American institution, and the leaked files show why, by laying bare the patchwork and contradictory evidence that in many cases would never have stood up in criminal court or a military tribunal.

COMMENT:  You can read the whole story for details.  Frankly, I don't think there's anything shocking here.  It appears that the documents are part of the WikiLeaks collection, and once again we have the issue of a newspaper, on its own, releasing classified files.  In this case the release might jeopardize criminal prosecutions.  But The Times, lofty and above us all, seems to feel it has this right.

One thing revealed is a list of the countries that sent interrogators to Guantanamo.  This list was kept secret to avoid embarrassing these governments, and now they will be embarrassed.  They'll be a bit more careful next time in dealing with the United States. 

I don't see where this release advances public knowledge or responsible journalism.  But why would The Times be concerned about little things like that?

April 24, 2011      Permalink

CHRISTIAN FEAR IN SYRIA – AT 11:37 A.M. ET:  On this Easter Sunday we might pause to note the plight of Christians in Middle East countries.  Ironically, some of the dictators have done a better job of protecting Christians than the people who may replace them, if the current revolutions slide downhill.  From the Washington Post: 

DAMASCUS, Syria — In the days leading up to Easter Sunday, Syria’s Christian community should have been busy preparing. This year, however, signs of festivities were hardly visible.

Following anti-government protests that have been violently suppressed, leaving about 300 people dead, street parades and other forms of public celebration have been declared illegal by authorities.

Meanwhile, fear is mounting among the nation’s Christians that the uprising that has rocked this tightly controlled country over the past month will bring them only misery.

For decades, the government of President Bashar al-Assad has protected Christian interests by enforcing its strictly secular program and by curbing the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood. In recent years, Assad has visited the town of Maaloula and other Christian communities to pray and pass on messages of goodwill. At Christmas, he addresses Syria’s Christians, carrying similar tidings. Assad is himself from the minority Alawite sect, a branch of Shia Islam, and many Christians feel they can relate to him.

Christians, who make up about 10 percent of Syria’s population, have largely stayed out of the anti-government protests, fearing what change could bring.

COMMENT:  This is also the case in Egypt.  We recently witnessed a Muslim riot in one part of Egypt over the appointment of a Christian (Copt) to a government position.

There seem to be no good choices in many of these Mideast countries.  Jews have already been driven out of many, or have chosen to leave out of fear.  Many Christians have left the Palestinian territories – those acres of tolerance – and it's quite possible we'll see a Christian exodus from other Arab countries.

We're glad the Washington Post has noticed.

April 24, 2011      Permalink

WHY LIBYA IS SO COMPLICATED – AT 10:50 A.M. ET:  The news out of Libya is thoroughly confusing.  Bottom line:  Qaddafi is still in power.  From Fox:

TRIPOLI, Libya – Libyan tribal leaders are trying to get rebels in the city of Misrata to lay down their arms within 48 hours, a government official said early Sunday, after a day of fierce clashes between opposition fighters and Muammar al-Qaddafi's forces.

If negotiations fail, Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Kaim said tribal chiefs may send armed supporters into the city of 300,000 to fight the rebels. In the meantime, the Libyan military is halting operations in Misrata, Kaim said.

Can you imagine?  In this day and age we're talking about tribes.  The impression given is that the tribes support Qaddafi, but that impression may be exaggerated.

However, the Misrata area is not known to have very large or dominant tribes, and rebels in the city questioned how much support Qaddafi had among them. It is also unclear whether the rebels would be willing to negotiate, particularly after claiming to have forced government forces to retreat. Kaim said tribal chiefs are still trying to get in touch with the rebels.

And...

Hundreds of people have been killed in two months of a government siege backed by tanks, mortars and snipers firing from rooftops. Late last week, rebels drove snipers from a tall downtown building, in a setback for Qaddafi loyalists who had controlled the city center. The rebels have defended positions around Misrata's seaport.

NATO has an air campaign going against government forces, and, although the U.S. has sent in pilotless drones, it has not sent in the very aircraft that could make a difference – the C-130 gunships and the deadly A-10 tank killers.  Obama seems to have no strategy and NATO has proved mostly ineffectual.

There is no identifiable end game here.  Combined with our strangely mild criticism of the brutal suppression of dissent in Syria, we look awfully weak.

April 24, 2011       Permalink

THE USUAL SUSPECTS – AT 10:26 A.M. ET:  It is Easter, and the faithful will strive to spend the holiday with family.  But not Jimmy Carter.  He is out saving the world in his usual manner – by appeasing international outlaws.  And he's brought friends:

BEIJING (AP) — Ex-U.S. President Jimmy Carter and three other former leaders arrived in Beijing on Sunday en route to North Korea to discuss the revival of nuclear disarmament talks.

Carter and the group of veteran statesmen known as the Elders are to travel to Pyongyang on Tuesday as part of international efforts to restart the negotiations on ending North Korea's nuclear program.

Elders but not wisers.

The group, which includes former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Brundtland and former Irish President Mary Robinson, said it also plans to discuss North Korea's chronic food shortages.

Mary Robinson is a case unto herself.  She presided over the infamous Durban hate-fest in 2001, a week before the 9-11 attacks.  Another contribution to humanity.

International disarmament talks with North Korea have been stalled for the past two years amid growing concerns over its nuclear programs.

"At a time when official dialogue with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea appears to be at a standstill, we aim to see how we may be of assistance in reducing tensions and help the parties address key issues including denuclearization," Carter was quoted as saying in a statement.

We have negotiated with North Korea for years and years, with nothing to show for it.  When will Carter understand that they're not giving up their nuclear program.  This is show biz, not diplomacy.

Carter, a Democrat from Georgia who was president from 1977 to 1981, is well regarded in North Korea despite its longtime animosity with the U.S.

I have absolutely no doubt about that.

COMMENT:  Before World War II the BBC refused to put Winston Churchill on the air, considering him a warmonger.  It had no problem with the appeasers.  The world listened to the appeasers.  Had it listened to Churchill, there might have not been a World War II.

Blessed be the real peacemakers, not the showmen.

April 24, 2011     Permalink